Wednesday, August 27, 2008

obama's to lose...

this may come as a shock for some, but as of now my vote belongs to barack obama.

this change has come over many months...and culminated in listening to his audiobook, 'audacity of hope' and watching john mccain in recent weeks.

specific reasons?

obama has thrown himself into the primary campaign and the forging of his policy positions with gusto. he has an over-arching vision for america. he is able to articulate that view to americans and the world in a palatable--even inspiring way. this ability is very important. the president of the united states has the biggest bully pulpit in the world. the ability to sway others is invaluable.

in comparison, john mccain has run a reactionary campaign. he was broke 8 months or so in the run-up to the republican primary. it's as if he was too lazy to work at it. he beat romney by partnering with a slick and bigotted huckabee and with reactionary digs. mccain has yet to come up with an overarching vision for america--aside from 'let's win in iraq'.

this 'vision' of his is most disturbing to me. mccain feels that vietnam could have been won if we would have tweaked our strategy and stuck it out. he said in a primary debate that he wants to stay in iraq 'so our boys can say they've won'. who the hell cares if our boys can 'say they won'. 'our boys' should be there only if necessary and saving face is not a reason to risk american lives.

mccain's other downsides include his temper and age. his reactionary tactics as a candidate--coupled with his temper and desire to stay in iraq until we've 'won' is a frankly scary combination.

this isn't to say that obama is all roses. his recent equating of russia's actions in georgia to america's actions in iraq was asinine and naive. his protectionist stances are worrisome for economic revival. while i am in favor of health care coverage for all--i worry he will err too far on the side of big government and a single party payor.

that being said, obama is correct on guantanamo, a loose time-table for iraq, enhanced diplomacy abroad, aiding the middle class in making a 'living wage' in the face of huge spikes in CEO and wealthy class largesse over the last 10 years, health care coverage for all, strong on civil, women's and privacy rights among others.

there are those who argue that obama is too soft on terrorism and in this time of crisis we need a strong man at the helm. this war on terrorism is subtle and nuanced. we need an intelligent man at the helm--not a strong bellicose man.

all this being said. obama's negatives lie close to the surface for me. if he flys poor colors in the debates and a romney/mccain ticket come together with a likely mccain death in his first term..? who knows...

as of now. my vote belongs to barack hussein obama.

58 comments:

Stephen said...

boo yeah.

Amy F said...

Congrats to Petey (who gave Paul Obama's book, 'The Audacity of Hope')... looks like your gifts are persuading people all over the country to do your will. We are also happy for your engagement!

Paul, I edited your choice of words. Seems like you need to refer to our very first post again?!?

Stephen said...

i don't like the word 'heck'. something stronger is needed.

paul: welcome to the barack club; however, i'm not quite sure how long you're going to stay here as it looks and sounds like romney just might be the gop veep pick. either way, you articulate your positions well. you do have to agree, however, that america's actions in iraq have severely limited our moral position to condemn what russia is doing in georgia, right?

petey said...

whoa.

i'm shocked.
yet, not surprised.

i ache for poor grandpa frandsen. what will he do at the reunion we so many of his loyal posterity being so disloyal, including at least a son, grandson and daughters....

paul said...

yes peter, thank you.

no to allow amy to simplify this decision though, your taking the time and money to send me the book was the impetus for me to get the audiobook and listening while biking.

the decision wasn't made over the course of a week of listening to obama's dulcet tones. the decision has been made over the last two years of following primary election coverage (most often comparing hillary and barack to mitt's positions.)

and while i've appreciated mccain as a 'maverick' in the senate over the years (often bucking the more over-the-top and ludicrous positions of the republican party.) in getting to know the man (living off the largesse of his wife's father's beer business, lack of direction in his campaigns other than 'attack the other guy') it would seem that his maverick decisions in the senate have been more about standing out to stroke his own ego than they were about principled stands... having watched him play dirty the last year against romney makes me wonder what he stands for aside from staying at war come hell or high water (sorry again amy.)

regardless. there you have it.

and congrats to peter on taking the plunge!

paul said...

stevie: let's not ruin this moment of your triumph by haggling over the obvious differences between russia and the US.

Stephen said...

paul: fine fine. let's indulge in the moment until tomorrow at 11:00 when mccain announces romney as the veep

Amy F said...

Paul... the phrase "come hell or high water" doesn't offend me.

Gabrielle said...

Obama will never get my vote. I'm not sure yet if McCain will, either.
I'm a true conservative at heart and I could never betray those deep convictions by voting for someone like Obama who opposes so many of the values and principles I hold most dear.
I'm pretty surprised, Paul, I always thought you were a conservative, too.
Since you read Obama's book, may I recommend another very good book? "Liberal Fascism" by Jonah Goldberg. Not sure if it's available on audio or not, but I bought a copy and marked it all up, so it's worth having in hard copy.

paul said...

gabrielle: nice to have you commment:)

i am still conservative at heart. certainly very fiscally conservative. my saying that my vote is obama's to lose is more about very specific issues that i find most pressing for our nation at this time. it is also about how unimpressed i am with mccain.

stephen still believes i will head head straight for mccain if he picks romney as his running mate today...and he may be right. romney's fiscal and foreign policy hit the spot for me in key ways. romney is more thoughtful and pragmatic about iraq with good solutions for current pressing global problems. romney would also be could for the country economically and for our health care industry.

as far as obama and the democrats go, i don't think it would be bad for the middle class to have someone looking after the minimum wage, putting curbs on corporate excess (recent lending debacles, drug and insurance companies in the health care industry etc etc etc.) i'm a capitalist at heart who believes that generally the free market will find more efficient solutions than government...but the end point of capitalism is not compassionate. it is also not safe (witness what a catastrophe we would have hit if fannie mae, freddie mac and bear stearns collapsed without a government fiscally robust enough to prop them up.)

anyway, don't lose all respect for me gabrielle. i just think that obama's ability to connect with people worldwide is something we could use right now. i feel sick at heart when mccain talks about 'winning' the war. we need to pressure the iraqis to step up. we need to pull out sooner than later. we can't allow wholesale collapse over there, but we don't need to search for new ways to keep troops in the country and for broader and broader ways to say 'we won.'

does that make more sense? at all?

thank you for the book suggestion. i will pick up a copy.

Jill T said...

I must say, I'm not surprised.

But I was surprised to read a swear word on this hear rated G blog...:)

paul said...

sorry to you too jill. amy tried to edit it, but stevie wouldn't have it...

paul said...

i certainly liked mccain's pick for VP today though...shrewd politics if nothing else.

Amy F said...

Stevie over Amy??... I think not. I retain the right to censor this here blog!

I had a few calls today wondering how Paul was "handling" McCain's VP choice. Seems that lots of ya'll thought Paul would be crying that Romney wasn't picked...

Not really so. Although McCain lost Paul's "secured" vote by not picking Romney.

Guess I'm married to an "undecided"?

Kendall said...

I must admit, I'm a bit surprised, Paul. I'm not sure who I'll vote for yet... I think Obama is inspiring and will do wonders for our reputation internationally, etc. My biggest concerns are his "naivety" (he seems to have said some things that seem a bit Pollyannaish regarding foreign policy) and how he's going to pay for all of his programs (I'm pretty fiscally conservative). Maybe I'll have to pick up a copy of his book.

Anonymous said...

Paul, I know that Obama is appealing to the younger generation because you weren't around during the VietNam era, and it's hard to hear how the US has to step up to the plate even though we get criticized for it.

You know I'm from Chicago, I was in IL when Obama was elected. He is a Chicago politician, and that is not a compliment. He is a good speaker, but I think you'll find in the debates that he really has no substance. I also can't believe he has a running mate that plagiarized his college paper.

I lost a brother in the VietNam war, and the North Vietnamese have recently come out and said we were winning, but the sentiment in the states caused us to get out.....leaving with our tail between our legs.

Obama said he wouldn't want his daughter being "punished" by having to have a baby if she made a mistake. On the other hand, Mother Theresa hands John McCains wife a baby as she's getting on a plane to come back to the US and they adopt her. The new VP candidate is told her baby will be down syndrome and she won't abort it and sees "pure perfection" when she looks in her eyes.

Have you looked at what Obama wants to do to our tax system?

I could go on and on....but I won't. Please just don't be naive in this decision and try to look into the souls of the men running for president. You may not like war, but you'll like it even less when it is brought back to our shores by radicals that want to see us all dead.

I'm not thrilled with McCain, but Obama truly scares me. He's so slick......like Bill Clinton was. Let's not go there!

Terri Smith (PS Congrats on the new baby! and say HI to Michael for me!!! HI AMY!)

Jenny said...

Hi Paul (and Amy!)

The Nate and Jenny Richards Family salutes your opinion, and wholeheartedly agrees...

Go Obama.... we think?!?!

buchanancasa said...

I'm with you, Paul. There are so many issues and so many pros and cons. One can't expect to love everything about any one candidate, but I definitely agree that Obama seems more sincere and concrete about his goals. It's not an easy decision, but I think yours is the right one! So many make their decision based on one or two hot-button issues, and that is just tunnel vision to me.

Amy F said...

Terri! So wonderful to see you here! Talk about a terrific soul--Terri, you are golden. We miss you in so many ways since you've moved. I hope you've found a good dollar store up there!

Terri talks about looking into the souls of those running for office. That is how I try to vote. Behind the speeches; behind the policies and the promises (which are important, too)... what do these people truly believe in? What will be the principles driving the decisions they will make in the refining fire of the presidency seat?

Neither candidate shares my exact principles. But I wonder which one will defend most of them? I'm depending on the debates to show me...

Aaron Joseph said...

I like your reasoning, Paul.

petey said...

as far as soul looking, it's much easier for me to get behind a man who pulled himself up by his own bootstraps and is married and still in love to the same woman he fell in love with years ago, than a man who cheated on his wife with a rich heiress, the same woman whom he so lovingly refers to as a trollop and other much more debasing, derogatory, and insulting terms...

but i don't generally vote on biographies.

Matt said...

Fun to see that Petey still uses the tactics he so frequently decries. It makes me feel like my absence from the blog has not been so long.

paul said...

i'm so glad everyone's come back to comment!

paul said...

kendall: i am still suprised with myself. i too am very fiscally conservative. obama’s are not to be embraced wholeheartedly. what is disheartening is the carving out of a solidly upper-class in america with real wages of middle class falling and staying barely stagnant with the upper highest echelon skyrocketing its income. bush is partly to blame. trickle-down economics has its limits. hard working people should be able to make a living and support a family. a few year with a democrat in office is a necessary evil to allow for the regulation that is sorely lacking several sectors of the current economy.

yes, obama has been naive in his foreign policy proclamations (including, stephen, his recent gaffe on georgia and russia), however, his heart is in the right place. his powerful oration in germany was breathtaking to me. 100,000 germans embracing him. we need the kind of leader that leads america back into the beloved regions of the hearts of the world. we could use a few years of someone less hotheaded in the white house while we ease tensions that could lead to world war iii.

i want to stop iran’s nuclear ambitions as much as the next guy...but let’s let israel bomb them—not us.

nice to hear from you kendall.

Allan said...

Welcome aboard, Paul! Good to see that even though you are a conservative, you are not a knee-jerk conservative.
I can't wait for the debates. I hope we can hear some convincing solutions, not just another round of opinions and character insults.
What do all of you think about McCain's VEEP choice? Where did that come from? I can see all of the female Clinton supporters swinging to support a rabid Republican.

Kendall said...

Unfortunately, as far as looking into souls goes, I guess I get a little sad when I look into McCain's soul and see that he left his wife after she was in a tragic accident (for a woman 18 years younger)... that's not a value I hope to espouse. I wish that politics brought the best of the best to the top, but it seems that it rarely does--sadly, the political process seems to appeal most to the narcissistic and cynical.

paul said...

hi terry! amy is right, we miss you so much. you are one of the most charitable people i’ve ever met. (and i’m not just buttering you up before i take on your assertions..:)

i’m not so sure about the ‘no substance’ claim. some of your statements certainly sound too definitive.

besides, mccain is more than 50% likely to die in office and the bright eyed governor from alaska is certainly less experienced than obama...not much less experienced, but enough to make you squirm in your seat and feel like you’re putting 15 year old girl with her driver’s permit in the seat of your own brand new Ferrari that you just purchased after 30 years of saving up...

biden is what he is—but obama is far less likely to die in office than mcain.

i’m sorry about your brother terri. i know some about vietnam, but i’m no expert.

iraq certainly no vietnam at this point.

leaving iraq responsibly can be done without creating chaos in the region.

listening to mccain on the subject gives me the creeps. pressuring the iraqis to get their act together in concert with our responsible exit is not leaving with our tail between our legs.

gettting out is better for all involved. our presence (as the soviet’s was in afghanistan) while good for the people is not what they want. it drives poorly educated and/or misguided jihadists to action.

i wouldn’t hold mccain’s wife up as an upstanding example of much of anything. they certainly have enough money for a nanny to bring up an adopted child.

there is certainly merit to women getting quality care rather than using a wire hanger when they’ve decided the baby is coming out no matter what. the abortion issue is a tough one, i’m not declaring my undying support to one party based on one issue.

terry, you would benefit from an obama tax system.

if this decision is based solely on the soul of the man—then obama is it hands down. i get queasy when i look too closely at the mccain family. does mccain’s wife and her kids relationship to that brewing company in arizona remind anyone else of ‘arrested development’ (may it rest in peace...)?

incidentally, bill clinton was the type of centrist president that was certainly sickeningly slick, but his centrist pragmatism was good for america.

paul said...

hi jenny and nate! nice to hear from you. and happy voting!

paul said...

audrey, is that you? i like your thoughts on tunnel vision. you've got to pick the issues that mean the most to you, prioritize them and go with it...

paul said...

aj: i like your style.

paul said...

matty: you absence from the blog was felt in no uncertain terms. welcome back.

petey: valid points. be nice:)

paul said...

allan: mccain's choice was brilliant strategy. ironically, it may backfire. i heard a mormon female friend say tonight that she thought it was irresponsible for a mother of 5 to go off and try to be vice president instead of staying at home with her kids.

perhaps the conservative women of the world aren't as pro-'break the glass ceiling' as the progressive women of the world...

it certainly gives a fresh look for mccain and allows him the chance to push for an 'historic' candidacy.

it also highlights how inexperienced obama is. every time a pundit says she is 'too inexperienced' it must be pointed out that she has been in working office as long as obama (since his last two years have been spent campaigning--not active government so much.)

very slick of mccain.

kendall: yes...cynics and narcissists all.

Heather said...

I'm with you on the vote as well..
Go Obama... i think you did a great job on everything you said!!

Allan said...

Palin: A scary potential president and Commander-in-Chief. McCain just had his 72nd birthday. Her experience:
PTA president
Former mayor of a 9000-citizen city
Governor for 1 1/2 years of a state 48 out of 50 in population and has been basically out of the natural picture except for the “bridge to nowhere,” which she originally supported.
No progress in the environmentalist/pro-oil production debate although she did promote oil and natural gas resource development in Alaska. Claims the greenhouse effect is not man-made.
No foreign policy experience, except that Alaska is kinda close to Russia. I have heard no info yet about her Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran opinions, but I strongly suspect they are lock-step with the failed Bush/McCain policies.
However, she has had XX chromosomes for 44 years, and was “Miss Congeniality” in a Miss Wasilla pageant.

Biden: An unlikely president and commander-in-chief due to a young, vigorous Obama. However, his experience:
Senate for 35 years-won first senate seat when he was 29 years old. Among other accomplishments, he he has been chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee
And compare his first wife history with McCain’s.

Dad (TMF) said...

Hope he loses.

Aaron Joseph said...

Interesting research, Dad. She has charm, but that resume' is pretty scary. McCain really should have gone with Romney. At least he would have gotten Paul's vote!

I don't intend to deter from the current subject at all, but preventative measures are necessary. Paul, regardless of the Washington vs. BYU result, I strongly suggest that we make a year long truce for the "BYU-Oregon" argument. Let sleeping dogs lie old friend. May both teams enjoy their stays in the top 25! I might give you a call one of these weekends as I have missed your insight and predictions for the start of this promising season.

petey said...

paul.
i am being nice. all i'm saying, that if you vote on character/soul, obama wins.

i think you said those same things.

and while biographies are important and sometimes telling; policies, not politics should be the basis for casting a presidential vote, IMNSHO. that's all.

ps. i like it when you comment six times in a row, then it doesn't seem like such an endless comment... ;) i can handle six little chunks.

Amy F said...

IMNSHO?? Enlighten me.

Truces are good. AJ--Matt said you called him on Saturday singing "It's the most wonderful time of the year." Football season will be a great one... you all can imagine what Michael has been playing all day today.

Football and politics... lots and lots and lots to haggle over.

petey said...

amy.
its a riddle. ask your husband. he'll know. he reads enough blog commenting...

Allan said...

I'm sorry. After thinking about it, I have to admit that after Dick Cheney for 8 years, perhaps be a Miss Congeniality wouldn't be a bad choice for VP after all.

Stephen said...

oh, i love allan's comments. now i don't have to say a thing.

oh paul, i believe there were 200,000 germans, something that is rightly inspiring, but that McCain somehow managed to turn into a liability by comparing obama to britney spears.

kendall: let the number 44 guide your choice. obama is the only way to go in this election, and you will soon realize this.

Amy: in my not so humble opinion

The Frandsen's said...

Paul,

You explain my feelings and my leanings towards Obama perfectly.

Darin

The Frandsen's said...

Paul,

You explain my feelings and my leanings towards Obama perfectly.

Darin

Amy F said...

My, my. It would seem that McCain doesn't have a prayer with so many born-red republicans turning all Barak.

What's the red party to do? I wonder. How will they appeal to this movement that is sweeping the nation? I'm still undecided... can't wait for the debates. I think McCain will have to pull out something a little more convincing than an Alaskan governor... who happens to be cute and female.

Dad (TMF) said...

Hope you have given equal time to the Republican convention tonight. Laura Bush is great. Joe Lieberman said it straight forward. And, Fred Thompson put things in perspective. George W passed on the baton to the future leaving the past behind. Very strong personal and compelling endorsements tonight.

Matt said...

On a more important note... Looks like UCLA is going to be more of a handfull than originally expected. We are going to find out how good our offence is next weekend.

Anonymous said...

This is my first time to your blog Pablo. I try to avoid blogs if I can help it, but rumors of this conversation reached me and I had to check it out.

You (and some of the others posting comments) have made some strong arguments in favor of Obama. The way I see it, Obama's pros are:

1. Well recieved abroad

2. More responsive to all economic classes

3. Advocate of universal health care

4. Handsome as the day is long

Cons:

1. Poor positions on abortion and gay and lesbian rights (Infanticide sickens me and gay and lesbian rights taken to Obama's extremes could be expensive for the LDS church and others who stand to be forced into conformity or lose their nonprofit status).

2. He sounds more and more like he favors a single provider health care system run by the government. My preferences for Universal Health follow the Romney plan.

3. His lack of executive experience is somewhat concerning (I'm not talking about experience in D.C., but experience in general.)

4. He is unlikely to be able to implement many of his most popular economic ideas because they would adversely affect most members of congress and their main campaign funding sources. Talk is one thing. Action is another.

5. He has some deplorable associations (William Aires, Jeremiah Write, and Tony Resco)


McCain's Pros:

1. McCain has consistantly supported development of alternative energy sources. His "drill here, drill now" campaign is supposed to be an attempt to help lower gasoline prices while creating that bridge into alternative energies which will still take some time.

2. He has one of the most accurate perceptions of illegal immigration among our nation's leaders.

3. He has a history of reaching out across the aisle to get things done in D.C. and that makes him more likely to implement his policies

Cons:

1. He doesn't have a great position on economic issues. He has shown that by supporting Bush's tax and economic policies.

2. His family history...well...it's a con.

3. He could die tomorrow and no one would be surprised.

NOTE: I haven't put as much thought into the Iraq war and national security issues so far in my research of candidates.


All of that being said, I'm still undecided about the candidates at this point.

I might have to come here more often.

Matt: BYU goes 10-2 this year with another strong showing in the Vegas Bowl. And I won't get to see a single game because nobody carries it out here in North Carolina.

petey said...

on executive experience:

barack has been running one of the most successful campaigns in recent history (from obscurity a few years ago and knocking off the clinton coronation machine, while dealing and deflecting as politics require the gaffes/controversies) for the last 19 months. while that is not a long period of time respective to mccain's senatorial time, it is just about as long as palin's so called "executive" experience of which mccain's chief advisor could not name ONE accomplishment as governor or mayor (of a 7,000 person town).

obama's ability to run a campaign with tight messaging and proper function in this age with an obsessive 24 news cycle shows that while his time in the US senate is short, his ability to lead, surround himself with bright minds and make the best decisions has been phenomenal during this long, long campaign season.

leadership is vision and decision making. i think obama has proved himself well thus far.

mccain has tainted his own image with the decisions he's made since the campaign season started, including his near bankruptcy, just a short year ago, rovian-like advertising, gimmicky solutions (gas-tax holiday) and other blunders. if only the mccain of 2000 were actually running for president this time around. he might actually be appealing.

Matt said...

10-2? I am nervous about a couple of games but I doubt they lose two again this year. DirecTV gets you all games, even in beautiful NC.

Dad (TMF) said...

What a great speech tonite by Palin. Even the deomocratic balancers on all the networks were dazzled.

Dad (TMF) said...

Romney's policy talk was a great reminder of why economic freedom is so important.

Allan said...

Giuliani: sarcastic and mean-spirited. Can lie with a smile on his face. When did significaant community organization become so diminutive and such a joke? More humorous insults about Obama than qualifications and intentions of McCain and Palin.
Palin: Charming. Well-coached in typical politics: Assassinate character while ignoring issues. We are at war and in a recession. Remember?

Winning the war in Iraq? When the "surge" is over, the Iraq war will return to what it always was: A holy civil war.

Can't wait for the debates-no teleprompters there.

paul said...

welcome chris! nice to hear from you.

dad: agreed

dad r: agreed

petey: agreed.

Dad (TMF) said...

I had a hard time believing McCain spoke for an hour. Very stirring. Lafe sat entranced for most of the speech. Good, common sense ideas. The McCain of 2000 is back. And, so am I.

petey said...

tracy:
loyal to the death. i respect that.
i also respectfully disagree. i watched start to finish and check the clock every five minutes or so wondering when he was going to wrap it up. it felt flat. a very tepid speech

we get it already: he was tortured.

i like john mccain's fighting spirit. he's going to need it.

overall his speech get a B- in my book.

Allan said...

I wish that I would have counted the number of times the Hanoi Hilton story was told and retold during the RNC. McCain is a true American hero, but after a while even his story becomes a little tedious and loses its effectiveness.
Also, talking about the Vietnam war should remind us that America doesn't always win a war. You kids are too young. In the end it didn't work, nearly split the nation, and decreased our international respect. And you should be a little worried about McCain's hints about a military draft. I am old, but I remember sitting at the radio listening to the draft lottery numbers being drawn- I was 19, and wondering if I would be able to go on a mission or be drafted into an unwinable guerilla (terrorist) war. Our current voluntary army is getting spread a little too thin, and they are getting tired. I have two boys who will soon be 19.

I wish that I could have been to the RNC last night, however. The balloons and confetti were awesome. Did anyone see the when one of the on-the-floor reporters thought a Utah delegate was Palin and started interviewing her?

Jill T said...

Peter, did you think the end of the speech was flat? I agree the beginning was a bit slow, but I was actually impressed with the ending. At the risk of being sacreligious, I almost thought the ending was somewhat "title of liberty" like. Re-read the part about fighting for family, freedom, etc... It was the highlight of a pretty disappointing RNC for me. Guiliani was completely embarrassing I thought.

Christene said...

I thought I'd take some time tonight and go "straight to the man" - or Obama's website to find out more where he stood on issues I believe in instead of listening to you. :)I must say that instead of learning a lot, I was asked on every page for money! Talk about annoying. Just give me the facts, oh inspiring one.

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