i've been thinking about oil lately. my attitude towards oil and energy was probably informed by my youth in spanish fork--lots of sweet trucks with big tires (low gas mileage) and wide open spaces on which to enjoy trucks and other engine based toys. i suppose i subconsciously felt that if God was worried about mother earth's health i would have heard something from a priesthood leader about conservation of energy. in most of utah there just aren't enough people for a critical mass of pollution to build up and visibly show the effects of carbon emissions on air quality...
currently, i believe that the majority of environmentalists use biased and alarmist data to further their positions. it does them a disservice because reasonable people tend to dismiss their claims on this assumption.
recently my favorite author :) wrote a treatise regarding conservation, and it struck close to home...for those of you who don't share my love of his writings, i will save you time and share the poignant points:
"...Back when I was in college, I was reading estimates that we'd be out of oil before the end of the 20th century..."
"...What is obvious is that we have used up almost all the easy oil and the "vast reserves" remaining in shale and other such marginal deposits are very expensive to extract.
How short-sighted do we have to be? We have been burning oil for only a century and we've nearly used up all the easy, high-quality stuff. What if we last another hundred years before it's all gone...?
Do you know what that means? Six thousand years of recorded human history, and in only two hundred years we wipe out a precious resource that can never be replaced..."
"...But we're just as dumb....because we still have plenty of time to change, and we're just not willing to do it.
Why? Because we still center our lives around the automobile.
It's so sad -- a real crisis is staring us in the face and hardly anybody is talking about it, because the phantasm of global warming is getting all the press..."
"...That's why I said we have to change our social expectations. We have to make it a mark of shame to be stuck in a neighborhood where the lots are so huge that you can't walk in order to get anywhere.
It's already a huge inconvenience and expense. I daresay most readers of this column spend most of their gas money and transportation time on two things: Shopping and commuting. And how much of that is spent just getting out of your neighborhood..."
"...Because of the rate we're burning oil, our kids, or maybe grandkids, won't have any.
So they'll have to live in smaller neighborhoods. They'll have to walk or take public transportation.
The difference is, it will have come on them as a disaster, an economic collapse, and they really will be poor..."
now i don't agree with all his assumptions and accusations (and he isn't without blame as he commutes 2 1/2 hours twice a week to teach at southern virginia university in his ford 500.)
however, we need to find economical ways to find new sources of energy. i am optimistic that turning the capitalistic market loose on the race for economically, profitable technologies will yield results. in the meantime, al gore may be hypocritical and wrong on most issues, but his crusade may be what saves our nation (and it will probably save it in ways and for reasons he will never understand...)
what are your thoughts? are these ideas new to you? distasteful? dangerous? sound? do you look into a child's eyes and fear for their future?
41 comments:
I bought a bike, does that help with conservation? I especially conserve when I can't find the keys to the Malibu and give up and drive to Provo in my Suburban.
Isn't that the cutest picture of my Bekah? I will ride my bike more for her.
nice. i like the picture of your kid to further your point. you've got me all the way.
when you've converted to a liberal view of things on a particular topic, you know the liberal media has done their job well....
Paul-I think that your ideas about changing our current neighborhood mindset are great. However, in my opinion, we not going to change a large part of our society and our big houses and suburban lifestyle in the few years that easy oil is accessible. Besides, continued dependence on oil and coal-based energy is not going to change the fact that we are still releasing millions of years of stored CO2 in a few decades. That is not just liberal media (sorry). It is just a scientific fact we have been ignoring. Not to mention our increasing dependence on some volatile countries.
A few of us buying bikes will help (not to mention my middleaged midsection). Conservation will help, but using paper bags instead of plastic is not the answer. The conservative media's rhetoric about volcanos and cow methane is typically short-sighted.
I think the most realistic answer right now is finding a way to produce a safe, reliable way to produce more nuclear energy. France now produces 80% of its electricity from nuclear plants. I know that waste is a huge problem with currrent nuclear energy technology, but I think that there has to be an answer. There is tremendous work being done currently on high-yield fusion reactors. Any time the term "nuclear" is used, it is easy to get nervous. But think of it. No CO2 and encouraging electrical-based transportation heating, etc.
More pictures and movies of grandchildren requested!
patty: anytime someone buys a bike a little bell rings in heaven...i'm excited about your bike. i'm even more excited that you visited the blog and commented. maybe chevy will finally come out with a hybrid suburban and we can upgrade? or some corn-based ethanol? cute bekah. she is quite the character :)
stevie: my brother mocks my aversion to the liberal media. orson is a funny blend of conservative and liberal--i tend to think that many of his ideas are not liberal or conservative--their right..:) an interesting post at times and seasons brought out the idea of a well informed big picture person (read orson) being more accurate than 'experts' who are swayed and often innaccurate due their close proximity to the problem. i will include some text below to bolster my point.
dad r: changing america's picture of the american dream (a home, land, etc...) would be extremely difficult and unpopular. seems inlikely to happen anytime soon. however, an interepid developer that creates a community with focal points at grocery stores and community parks allowing for biking and walking to points of interest is feasible...
the immediate danger in my mind is not global warming or even running out of oil, but our military and economic dependence on the OPEC nations. i think we need to push forward on cold fusion--my beloved alma mater in all its glory:)
seriously though--let's hybrid up all our cars and cut emissions in half. let's push r&d for some un-discovered source of energy that can solve the problem. please, just don't let john edwards be in charge of the crusade--he can't tell up from down... interesting though as i heard a friend mention some recent article on the damage done to the environment due to mining for the nickel (?) used in the batteries of toyota's hybrids...maybe it ultimately comes back to trusting in God's knowledge of the earth and allowing for advances as he sees fit. i usually find when i come back to faith that my anxieties are usually allayed...
exerpts, "...This position represents an enlightened Mormon version of what might be described as 20th-century decision theory: find the best expert you can and rely on him or her. More recent research on decision-making has cast doubt on this perspective in the secular world. A readable and very informative popular-press presentation of much of this research is James Surowiecki's 2005 book, The Wisdom of Crowds. Under a wide range of circumstances, the studies discussed by Surowiecki show, the aggregated judgment of many fairly uninformed individuals can be more reliable — often far more reliable — than that of one or a small number of highly informed experts.
Another fairly recent, and highly readable, book that addresses these issues is Philip E. Tetlock's 2006 Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? In this book, Tetlock shows that the quality of expert judgment is often surprisingly low, and that judgment quality does not have a strong connection with intelligence or with experience. Instead, the quality of expert judgment is closely connected with a distinction between two cognitive styles: that of the hedgehog, who knows one big idea extremely well and uses it in all circumstances, and that of the fox, who knows a lot of different little things and is most experienced in bringing seemingly divergent concepts, facts, and theories together. The hedgehog-type expert performs poorly, while the fox performs well..."
Get real...
Cutting our emissions in half isn't going to save anything. Buying a bike won't do anything but help you get healthy (which is a good enough reason), but it isn't going to save the earth or your children. The acute concentrations of pollution around large cities are a problem that needs dealing with, but speaking in a worldwide sense, even millions of bikes won't keep more oil in the ground.
The reason for this is that every barrel of oil YOU save will be burned by someone else. Even if everyone in the U.S. saves millions of barrels a year, those barrels will just be burned by China or India (who do still share the same atmosphere as us), and there is nothing that you can do to stop them.
I am in favor of searching for alternatives to an oil-based economy and military, but my reasons are purely strategic. Conservation will never work. We WILL run out of the stuff someday, and whoever is farthest along in other forms of energy comes out on top. However, as long as there is relatively inexpensive oil to be burned, it will be burned by someone.
Focusing on saving the atmosphere from emissions is useless. It may feel good, but it is a lie. All accesible oil will be burned up into the atmosphere sooner or later by someone. The real reason to change is to make sure we are not dependent on oil when it runs out, or becomes too expensive to extract.
Matt... so the picture of Bekah didn't appeal to your emotions? You hard, cruel man.
Although your approach is fatalistic, I agree that it is true. I'd love to see more $$$$ and incentives given toward finding alternative sources. They say our government is kind of doing this, but are they doing enough?? I hope some of our best minds are working on it. It seems more important than explosives or military firearms... eh?
I am of the exact opposite mindset as you paul. I say, move to the country, grow your own crops and meat. Go into town once a month, and maybe to a hoe down. Sounds like the life for me. I know it is not for everyone. I can't stand the tract houses. Drives me batty. Oh, and I would have to home school because most of my gas spent right now is taking 1 child back and forth to school every day because I live too close for a bus, and too far away to walk. (Okay, not too far away, but too far away.)
i will get to your great comments in a bit. i wanted to show this cool site showing who has given more than $250 to romney. i was dissapointed to see how little spanish fork has represented...and no frandsen have donated enough yet...i guess i should lead by example. i was invited to another romney fundraiser with the minimum being $250. unfortunately, i didn't make it..:(
click on city to see the cities grouped together. click on national map to go elsewhere...
Gosh, Matt, take a breather; I agree with you that alternative energy sources are the only answer. But to say that the long-range effects of CO2 emissions is a lie? There is awfully good proof that global warming is a real problem.
It would be an ideal solution if US could take the lead in developing and then proving the economic viability of other sources.
The problem is, we are just dealing with human nature. We tend to change only when all of the easy solutions are used up and we are forced to look for something else.
What if the US did a "Manhattan Progect" approach or Kennedy's "Put a man on the moon in 10 years" intensity toward developing new energy sources? Sorry, not going to happen with an administration I believe is controlled by the oil industry.
I hope our next president and vice president are more highly motivated.
Does my Precor count as a bicycle, or is it a problem? I worry about all of the CO2 I produce.
Paul... I don't think you would have persuaded your financial adviser into allocating $250 of your funds to Romney and this certain time...
But, perhaps with Romney's keen business sense and they way he values the private sector he could motivate some kind of alternative fuel movement like dad is talking about.
The Precor = always a good thing.
matt: after reading and thinking about your comments i think you and i are in greater agreement than you think.
a few issues...america is far and away the largest consumer of oil. cutbacks that we make now would have immediate impact. china and india are poised to steamroll (or should i say combust) onto the scene, but that doesn't diminish our complicity in the problem. and accords passed on the international level (think a more economically feasible kyoto) would be internationally enforceable (tariffs on china for not cutting oil consumption etc).
next, you agree that change must be made. so do i. strategic reasons are more important than global warming in my mind as well (see my original statements on that point). however, the problem in your logic is that without demand, companies in the US will NEVER make the switch. they will not really push for alternative fuel sources unless the demand and the government environment is there (read subsidies, tax breaks, laws requiring the change so other companies won't just cop out and gouge profits in the 'dirty' fuel' sector). so really, your need to change our usage habits strategically goes hand in hand with the publics perception and motivation to be more green. if al gore's movie pushes more people to use less oil and pay more money for alternative sources of fuel then that is a victory. gore can feel like he saved the world from global warming just like he believes he invented the internet--neither is true--but in the case of conservation we may avert an economic and political catastrophe by decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.
christene: i love your idea. it sounds like your life in gallup, nm was similar to this idyllic picture you paint..? about the school thing, i've got this inexpensive little bike trailer with two seats in the back. what a fun way to exercise in the morning and enjoy your kids in the outdoors...when i was a youngster we rode our bikes to school, but i fear in our current world there are those evil influences in the world that make a ride to school in the morning without several kids together makes this a less palatable option...
dad r: hal's all seeing eye is outstanding. i still haven't figured out how to create my own avatar. i should probably google it, but i need to go to work.
Paul... Maybe you should start biking to work again (except for your months at Riverside)???
I didn't say the CO2 emissions damaging our planet is a lie, I am saying that the notion of buying a hybrid or riding a bike having some direct impact on CO2 emissions is a lie. If you don't burn the oil, someone else will.
There is only so much oil, and if your activities ensure that less is taken out for you, someone else (China, India) will take it out for themselves and burn it. All the oil will be burned, I repeat, all the oil will be burned. Sanctions or tarrifs will only delay this inevitable fact.
It is a lie to say that I as a person or we as a nation will change that by moving away from an oil-based economy. However, we will help ourselves out in a strategic sense by moving away from it. Like we all agree, there is only so much and we need to have moved on to some other energy source when that happens in order to avert a disaster. Strategic implications are the only real ones (besides acute urban pollution as before mentioned).
I think that the only way the government should have any hand in averting this disaster, is by taxing the daylights out of the gas we buy and pouring every cent back into research. It will hurt for a while, but we need some breakthroughs in this area of physics similar to those made by the Manhattan Project.
Amy, you need good minds ALWAYS working on defense. Imagine what life would be like if places like Iran, North Korea, Russia, or China weren't scared of us. We are the worlds superpower and it should stay that way. We aren't perfect, but our moral compass as a nation far superior to others wanting superpower status. If they were to match or even outmatch us in military capabilities, you wouldn't be worried about CO2, I can tell you that. Check your history books for the arbitrary abuse our nation suffered at the hands of the British, the unspeakable crimes of Germany because they really thought they could make a run to become top dog, the opportunistic crusade of the Japanese for land and resources, or the tention created during the Cold War because the Soviet Union was the biggest boy in the East. The world has seen it's most peaceful era in known history because people are scared of a nation (us) that loves peace and is willing to fight for it.
Dad, I know that you think Iraq is a squabble over oil, and there is some truth to that, but if another nation were in our place, they would annex Iraq and slaughter opposition. We, on the other hand deposed a tyrant and have allowed a civil war to begin, but the civil war was the choice of the people of Iraq. They could have freedom if they would embrace the great principle of compromise that gave birth to our nation.
Christene, I am not sure where you grew up. I grew up on a farm, and I will be happy if I never get within miles of a cow that isn't cut up and in plastic wrap.
Matt... you KNOW I was just teasing you about explosives and military firearms, right??? ;)
As far as people individually trying to make a difference... why be so grim about it all?? True, it might not change the inevitable. Like you say, it will only delay it. But isn't that part of the point? Maybe a few years? Maybe a decade? Maybe a generation (our children)? Perhaps the "small steps" will buy us time to find another source?
I would never consider myself an environmentalist, and conserving is never at the top of my moral to-do list. But I do try to do all my errands (in my big SUV) in one trip. I try to turn my car off if I will be idling for a while. Not much, but it is something.
I also turn off the water between tasks in the kitchen and while I brush my teeth. We water our lawn at night. I try to have Michael bathe after the girls so I only have to add 1/2 the water (if Bekah hasn't pooped in it first!). Because our city makes recycling so easy (you don't have to separate anything, and they have a separate garbage collection service on garbage day), I have a recycling garbage can right next to my regular garbage in the kitchen. It is funny how much more I think of it now...
Sometimes it gets a little comical. Instead of throwing my gum wrapper in the regular garbage, I think to myself, "Now what if every person in the whole world threw one gum wrapper in a landfill. That would be a lot of trash." Sounds like a commercial, I know. But somehow I feel responsible when my recycle garbage fills up much faster than my regular garbage. I know my contribution is largely insignificant... but it gives me a warm fuzzy.
And what if everyone DID throw away their gum wrappers...
I find the financial benefits of conservation a better motivator than "green" principles. However, per our upbringing, I am never one to arbitrarily waste or litter.
Good point on delaying it, Amy. I just get tired of hearling lies about how we can "save" future generations by purchasing wind energy at twice the cost from our power company and the like.
Sorry if I killed the conversation.
amy said pooped.....
happy birthday Stephen!!
you didn't kill conversation matty. you got me worked up and i just want to present the perfect parable to shatter you self-assurance...:)
i should clarify. worked up in a nice, congenial way.
quick story. three families lives near a spring. the one family is three times as big as other families. water is running out. the first family says, "keep drinking or the others will use up the water before we do"
i know, lame parable. (i'm at work. little time)
matty: i don't mind the gas tax idea, but it doesn't sound like you to leave the solution to the government's machinations.
a culture of conservation drives demand for new technology. i firmly believe the solution will come from the private sector in conjunction with basic science research (maybe that's where your tax money can go?)
the US uses 20+ billion barrels a year to china's 6--a cut in our consumption would not be negligible. if we can prolong the ability to fly plains for 200 years by rationing? that would be worth it.
until we have the replacement technology it is irresponsible not to work on reducing consumption. just like the family by the spring who continues to drink before finding an alternative water source (their only justification being that if they don't drink it up someone else will).
happy b-day stevie
Here is the website for Paul's stat.
Oil consumption by country.
Proud of me Paul??
I like how Paul and Amy communicate via the blog. It's cute.
Amy we also have the recycling garbage can and I too am more conscious now of what is recyclable and what isn't. I've been checking wrappers/boxes/packages/containers etc... and it's interesting to see which companies are more environmentally friendly.
It's just sickening to think how much garbage we go through in a week, period. We are privileged, spoiled people here in the US!
Good job, Jill. And don't you feel responsible? Do you have recycling services with your garbage pick-up?
And don't you get warm fuzzies???
Uncle Allan:
I didn't necessarily grow up a "farm girl." We raised cattle to slaughter, and had a couple acres. I've been on a couple of horses. But my true self would love to go back to a simpler lifestyle that depends more on self and family than outside influences. I was very proud as I realized the other night that the dinner I fed to my family was all from MY house. (Not intentionally) Yes, scrambled eggs with grated zucchini in it with cucumbers on the side. Sounds gross to some, but we loved it, and it was all by my sweat. What an incredible feeling! And no garbage to throw away! The eggshells and zucchini ends went right back out into the chicken coop.
As for the bike idea. On a busy street, as you know, and with the 10 sexual predators that Megan's law website says that we have around us, and those that they don't know about . . . no walking or biking for me. Maybe if I grow huge muscles. Or get a concealed weapons permit. Too bad Grandpa didn't know this house was going to be in the middle of town when he built it, huh?
Is there something wrong with the hybrid that I don't know about? (Other than still using gas.)
Mmmm, fresh food from the garden. That's the best.
Amy-our recycling pick up is every other week, the same day as garbage day. So it's nice and convenient.
Amy, those oil consumptions stats are amazing. However, I think we also have to look at are some other stats. Of the top 20 rated universities, 18 are in the US. More research and development of new technology comes from the US, compared to any other country.
What if we subsidized research on reasonable new energy sources with a 10th of the $$$ we are spending on a futile war in Iraq? Maybe we could become a world example of a successful democracy again, instead of becoming a country everyone is hating more and more.
I am getting sick of politicians (both sides) who are running on platforms of who we should fear the most, and who we should police next.
Maybe I am a little naive.
Also, Christene: Have you ever cleaned out a chicken coop? Chickens produce A LOT more than eggs. Hmmm..maybe there is a solution to our energy problems. Chicken blblblblbl.
wow.
take a week off from the residents and there's no room to speak. all the comments have be used up like irreplaceable resources...
good talk, guy. good talk.
did you guys see that amy said pooped?
Matt, I was just looking back at some of your earlier comments about defense, esp. how we are going to be safe only if we maintain our status as the global nuke weapon thug so that we are safe from N. Korea, China, and others.
Question? Who are we going to retaliate against if NYC is bombed by a rogue cell located in Canada?
Dad, defense doesn't mean nukes. Much of the nuclear weapons complex is very focused on non-proliferation of special nuclear materials. We haven't been testing or making new nukes for over 15 years, just maintaining what we have and trying to keep thugs in Russia from selling off poorly protected fissionable materials accross boarders. This has likely delayed a nuclear bombing that could have been effected already had the DOE been inventing bigger and better nukes all this time.
Paul, it must have been very late when you came up with your confidence-shattering comments. I think conservation is a great thing, but most people focus on it for the wrong reason. Conservation isn't going to keep oil from being burned. If you know a spring that is going to run out, I don't care what family you are, you want to find a way to survive without it. However, all the water will still be used by one of the families, and hoarded if possible.
In the end, with a capitalist economy, the only way there will be any (non-negligable) impact on how much we dip from the spring, is if oil products become too expensive. In the real world, ideals don't shift the market. Money shifts the market.
Hey, maybe Bush has this one figured out! He attacks the oil region of the world, makes everyone mad, drives up prices, and now all of the sudden we care about freeing ourselves from the pumps! He may have saved our country from an economic disaster decades in the future by pushing gas above $3.00 a gallon and motivating us to do something about it. Could he still go down as the greatest President in our nation's history???
Recycling is another matter. My hat is off to those that participate in this program that truly has a direct impact on our North American environment.
"Could he still go down as the greatest President in our nation's history???"
gag
matt: we are still saying the same thing. all families would need to set up a guard around the water and use less. it would be dangerous not to make all parties use less water until the alternate source was found.
i believe you are getting at the same idea regarding the market. you say ideals don't change the market but price does. well, price is dictated by demand (ideals). if there is a demand for alternate technology (ideals) then the profits will follow. you are thinking on the consumer end, but from the supply side you need demand before you will sink large sums into the black hole of r&d...
the ultimate irony is that these high prices will cause people to conserve. it will also cause a demand for alternate technology. those two ideas sound like two ideas i've heard before in this thread...?
that last paragraph is referring to high prices for gas (matt suggested a tax on gas).
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